The post-Brexit climate in the UK has been under close scrutiny since the referendum result in June 2016, and has fuelled a renewed interest since the triggering of Article 50 last month.
It’s true that house prices have dropped since the result of the vote came in, and this is in no small part due to the drop in the value of pounds sterling. However, rather than immediately crashing the housing market and causing complete disinterest in investment, 28% of respondents to a recent RICS survey stated that they expect a rise in house values over the next 12 months, and that the initial drop in prices is attracting more overseas investors, especially in the commercial property market. RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn commented:
“The results… suggest the commercial property market is continuing to attract investor interest despite ongoing concerns about pricing in the capital and the prospects for the economy more generally.”
So then, apparently no need to worry there
In terms of the residential property market, experts also appear a lot more calm about the prospects of a massive crash in the market, and although property is going through an unsettled time, the Financial Times reports that industry leaders are no longer worried about an immediate crash.
The prices of London real estate (the subject of most, if not all, of the reports we found) have fallen between 15 and 25% since the Brexit vote, however despite the fact that Tranio.com forecasts pricing in central London dropping a further 5-15% in the next year, the upside is the prediction of a stabilisation after that.
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Dr. Walter Boettcher of Colliers International, in an article for costar.co.uk stated that “given a few recent high profile lettings in London, it looks increasingly like any lingering weakness in the London rental market may prove to be more cyclical than political,” and so the corroboration of opinions does seem to fall on the side of ‘don’t panic’.
We are yet to see the long-term effects of Brexit on the British economy in general, including the property sector, but we’re crossing our fingers that the experts are right. They wouldn’t be called experts otherwise, would they?